Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 VidantaWorld Mexico Open, which gets underway on Thursday in Nuevo Nayarit.
After a weather-shortened trip to Bermuda in the middle of the Atlantic, golfers will head west this week to the shores of the Pacific Ocean along the coast of Mexico. This marks the fifth year that Vidanta Vallarta, located between Nuevo and Puerto Vallarta, will host the Mexico Open as a part of the PGA Tour schedule. It is the first year that this tournament finds itself as a part of the FedEx Cup Fall Series.
The tournament’s four prior champions are Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp, and Brian Campbell. Campbell beat Aldrich Potgeiter last fall in a playoff to become the real outlier among a group of absolute bombers.
The golf course is a Greg Norman design, featuring wide Paspalum grass fairways, a lot of bunkering and water hazards, very little rough, and very large, Paspalum greens. It is a par 71 that stretches to over 7,300 yards. The course’s main defense is wind, but the forecast is calling for calm conditions throughout the week, though an afternoon thunderstorm or two is expected. The average winning score over the first four versions of this event is 20 under par.
While correctly landing on the outright winner is never easy, the skill set focus for this golf course is pretty simple: Hit it long off the tee and be dialed in with the long irons from 200+ yards out. With that, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Birdies or Better Percentage, Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum).
We do see wide-fairway, bomber-friendly courses regularly on Tour, and when taking a closer look, many of the same names tend to show up on these leaderboards. I looked at Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open), Memorial Park (Houston Open), Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship), Corales (Corales Puntacana Championship), and TPC Craig Ranch – home to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Texas.
Over his last eight world-wide starts, Penge has finished in the top 20 five times. Over the last 20 rounds, he is the longest player off the tee in this week’s field. He ranks 14th in this field for SG: Ball Striking, 16th for Birdie or Better Percentage, and is eighth for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He currently sits at 112th in the FedEx Cup standings, needing to crack the top 100 in order to keep his Tour card.
Brown has spent most of his young career on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he just finished runner-up at the Tour Championship a few weeks ago. Back in April, Brown finished runner up at the Tulum Championship in Riviera Maya, Mexico — another golf course that features wall-to-wall Paspalum Grass. On the PGA Tour, he has finished top 20 in five of his last six starts, and that includes an 11th-place finish at Corales Puntacana. Back in March, Brown was third at the Puerto Rico Open, yet another coastal, Paspalum grass golf course. Over the last 20 rounds, Brown ranks second in this field for SG: Approach, fourth for SG: Ball Striking, and is 11th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards.
Last week in Bermuda was tough. Novak got off to a great start and then of course, never got to finish with weather limiting the tournament to just 54 holes. Novak was eighth in that field last week for SG: Approach and was third for Greens in Regulation. He is one of the better players in this week’s field for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards, ranking 15th. Novak has finished eighth and 15th here at Vidanta, seventh and third in his last two trips to Torrey Pines, and as high as 11th at Corales Puntacana.
Smith is a long hitter whose primary strength is ball striking – and he’s one of the better players in this field this week, so I’ll give him a shot to take home the trophy. Similar to Marco Penge, Smith is an Englishman who is finishing up his first full year on the PGA Tour. Both players came over from the DP World Tour after finishing top 10 in the Race for Dubai which qualifies one for a PGA Tour card the following year. Over the last 20-rounds, Smith ranks 22nd in this field for SG: Ball Striking and 28th for Hole Proximity from 200+ yards. He was fourth in his last start three weeks ago at the Baycurrent Classic.
The Florida State Seminole burst onto the Tour scene two years ago when he finished runner-up at the John Deere Classic and the RSM Classic. This season, Clanton finished fifth in Puerto Rico back in March, seventh in Utah four weeks ago, and 11th last week in Bermuda. He is No. 1 in this field for SG: Approach and 13th for SG: Ball Striking over the last 20 rounds.
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