Welcome to our PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow him on X at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his early picks below for the Open Championship, which gets underway on July 16 at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
The golf season’s final major is right around the corner. The John Deere Classic provides the final tune-up on American soil, and next week’s Genesis Scottish Open transitions us to the other side of the pond ahead of the following week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England.
Scottie Scheffler arrives as your defending champion, hoisting the Claret Jug last summer at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, and is the tournament favorite again at around +550.
The last time we saw Royal Birkdale for an Open Championship was in 2017. An epic duel on the inward nine saw Jordan Spieth finally pull away from Matt Kuchar and capture his third career major championship title. Beginning on Thursday, July 16, 2026, Birkdale kicks off what will be the 154th edition of this glorious, global golf championship. The golf course is a classic links design, situated on the coast of the Irish Sea. It will play to a Par 70 and measures roughly 7,200 yards.
I love the mix of holes. Six Par 4s fall into the 400-450-yard range. Three Par 4s are under 400 yards long, and three are over 500 yards. Two of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, and one of the two Par 5s is over 600 yards. The nasty, wispy, heather-grass exists off the fairways amidst the rolling moguls of windswept terrain we have become familiar with when thinking of links golf and this tournament. The fairways themselves are notoriously flat, narrow and bordered by signature sand dunes that reach up to 50 feet in height. The sandhills create a separation between holes in the golf course routing as well as an elevation change from tee to green.
There are literally hundreds of sand bunkers throughout the golf course, many of which are the especially penal pot bunkers — another signature feature of many Open Championship venues. The greens are smaller than average targets with a great deal of subtle undulation. Because of the ever-present threat of severe winds at an Open Championship, the greens will, as usual, be kept at a relatively slower speed than we are used to seeing.
In trying to relate Royal Birkdale to other courses we are familiar with, I think of Sea Island at the RSM Classic with its flat fairways, coastal location and dunes. Harbour Town for its small greens, coastal location and narrow fairways, and Colonial Country Club, also for the similarities in fairways and greens as well as layout routing. Royal Troon makes sense as the most similar Open Championship venue.
We see evidence of these correlations in the 2017 leaderboard. Both Spieth and Kuchar have won at Harbour Town, as has Branden Grace, who finished sixth at the 2017 Open. Spieth has won at Colonial, and Kuchar has been as high as runner-up. Looking at links to Royal Troon, Matthew Southgate finished 12th at Troon in 2016 and was sixth at Birkdale in 2017. Henrik Stenson won at Troon in 2016 and was 11th at Birkdale the following year. Xander Schauffele finished 20th at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2024. Sweden’s Alex Noren finished 13th in 2024 and was sixth at Birkdale in 2017, Links golf is very different from what we are used to in America and every Open Championship is different because of weather conditions but in the early explorations, I believe we have a decent base of information to integrate into our handicap and enough to make a few educated guesses as to who might be the 2026 Champion Golfer of the Year.
It is interesting to see Lowry’s price so low compared to what we often see at Signature Events on the PGA Tour or other major championships. Oddsmakers are well aware of how well Lowry’s game translates to links golf — and of course, he won the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. He is arguably the best wind player in the world, and if conditions are such at Birkdale, he’s a good guy to have on your card. Lowry has twice finished third at Harbour Town and was sixth at Royal Troon in 2024. He ranks 18th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and is 24th in Driving Accuracy.
This will be the second major in a row that I have played Henley, and I’m hoping it goes better than the last, where he finished 65th at Shinnecock at the U.S. Open. Henley was 37th at Birkdale back in 2017. He finished fifth at Troon in 2024 and 10th at Portrush last summer. He also won back in May at Colonial. His game should be excellent for this golf course. Henley is 48th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and is 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He is No. 1 for Driving Accuracy and is fourth in Scrambling.
A major championship feels like something that could be in the cards for both Henley and another Georgia Bulldog in English. He’s had multiple top 10 finishes at major championships and was runner-up to Scheffler last year at Portrush. English lives in the community and plays out of the Sea Island Golf Club. He’s finished as high as sixth at Colonial and was fourth earlier this season at Harbour Town. He ranks 20th on Tour in Total Driving and is eighth for SG: Putting. It feels to me like he has a better chance than 100-1.
We’ll be back here on Tuesday, July 14, for the rest of our tournament preview and the remainder of our plays to win The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
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